Projection is everything in baseball. Whether, a player is being looked at for the real team, or for a manager in a fantasy league, the player is always graded out, all five tools are anylyzed, and then projected over the alotted time period (whether a career for Major League Baseball players, a season and/or several seasons for the fantasy manager). The overall cunundrum is what is a team willing to give up, for a perspective player. Over the years, several teams have made deals for the playoff run, made the all knowing cry of "we are in a rebuilding cycle" and/or the team needs a certain kind of player for the team (a teammate, a category player, or just rookies for veteran talent).
Decisions managers, general managers, and owners have made have been brilliant: whether using the draft, trades, or sifting thru "rule five players" and waiver picks. Then others have done quite the opposite, and have banished a team for years, in squaller. Trades and acquisitions like:
TRADES DURING THE YEAR, WHICH HAVE YET TO 100% PAN OUT, BUT COULD:
1. John Danks (White Sox) for Brad McCarty---advantage Sox
2. Josh Hamilton (Texas) for Edinson Volquez (Reds)-- As of now, Draw
3. Kevin Millwood (Phillies) for Johnny Estrada (Braves)-- advantage Phillies (then)
ACQUISITIONS/WAIVER PICKS/RULE 5 DRAFT PICKS:
1. Robinson Tejada (Royals)--Waivers from Texas-- Great Arm & Pitches, but pitched in Texas
2. Rule 5 Draft Selections-- JoHann Santana (Mets from Astros), Dan Uggla (Marlins), Josh Hamilton (Rangers), Joakim Soria (Royals)
WORST TRADES, AT THE TRADE DEADLINE, IN THE PAST:
1. Jeff Bagwell (to the Astros) for Larry Anderson (Boston)
2. Mark McGwire (to Cardinals) for 3 players: T.J. Mathews, Eric Ludwick, Blake Stein (A's)
3. John Smoltz (to Braves) for Doyle Alexander (to Tigers)
4. Derek Lowe & Jason Varitek (to Red Sox) for Heathcliff Slocumb (to Mariners)
When looking at the overall players above, the teams that won and lost, one thing is 100% for sure, and that is nothing is 100% for sure. When a pitcher, like Kevin Millwood goes to the Phillies (pre-new ball park) it managed out to be a great/good trade, for the Phillies. However, when Millwood was off to Texas, things changed dramatically. It was not because Millwood's talent, arm, or skills were shot, but the fact was, he was playing in the Arlington ball park. In the summer months, in Texas, the air is thin and hot, and balls fly out of the park like they were shot out of a cannon. This alone, could add a full point onto any ERA, so Millwood goes from a 3.46 ERA, to a 4.46 ERA, just by pitching half of his games in Texas.
Rule 5 draft picks, are the players who are not protected by the club, on their 40 man roster. Teams take chances, leaving player who have talent, good tools, and great attitudes unprotected, because another team may not move another out, for a "flier, chance player." Obviously, there are diamonds in the rough, found in players like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Hamilton, and others who become all-star players. However, most of the players picked up, in rule 5 drafts, are players like Robinson Tejada (Royals). Tejada is a guy who has a great arm, three solid pitches, but will have to struggle for a year in the big leagues (the other problem with taking "rule 5" players, a team must keep them for the whole season, on the major league roster, or sell the player back at half price to the other ball club). Tejada may struggle this year, along with many other "Rule 5" picks, but after a season, or two in the minors (after taking their lumps for a year), they may come back to flourish. A good "Rule 5" player, could be a saviour to small market teams and for late season fantasy managers, who may need a specific category.
Finally, there are the obvious trades, which may not seem obvious at the time. Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson, was one of the biggest mistakes the Red Sox have ever made, as Bagwell played fifteen seasons with the Astros, put up huge numbers and will be a first ballot hall of famer. However, for every Bagwell trade that is a horrible mistake, there are five other trades, which help out the teams for the end of the season, playoffs, and maybe even getting a team a World Series Ring.
The bottom line, there are always "do's and don'ts" for real teams, trades, waiver, rule 5, and fantasy baseball managers. They are not always on the front burner though. A player with heavy tools and a great attitude (Josh Hamilton), is not always a sure thing. Hamilton was picked number one, overall, by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, in 1999. He signed a record contract, out of high school, was a five tool player and was a sure pick to be the next big superstar. Drugs, poor decisions, and a string of injuries took Hamilton out of the game altogether. Upon losing the contract, with the D-Rays, he was picked up by the Cubs (who left him unprotected, in the Rule 5 Draft) and the Reds picked him up. He was drug free and on the road to becoming a great person, but was not panning out as a player. The Reds made the trade, Josh Hamilton to the Rangers for Edison Volquez (back to the Reds). Now Hamilton is leading the American League in home runs, and Volquez is 10-3, and in the race to win the Cy Young Award and possibly Rookie of the Year awards. It is a big gamble, being an owner, GM, and manager dealing in the Rule 5 players, rookies, deadline trades and all that comes with them. At least, playing the fantasy league sports, a person will not lose there job, only (possibly) winning, or losing their league. Right?
From DMAN, at TheThoughtSpigot.com
http://thethoughtspigot.com/
"Where the news, sports, politics, and public opinion collide in one site"
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Decisions managers, general managers, and owners have made have been brilliant: whether using the draft, trades, or sifting thru "rule five players" and waiver picks. Then others have done quite the opposite, and have banished a team for years, in squaller. Trades and acquisitions like:
TRADES DURING THE YEAR, WHICH HAVE YET TO 100% PAN OUT, BUT COULD:
1. John Danks (White Sox) for Brad McCarty---advantage Sox
2. Josh Hamilton (Texas) for Edinson Volquez (Reds)-- As of now, Draw
3. Kevin Millwood (Phillies) for Johnny Estrada (Braves)-- advantage Phillies (then)
ACQUISITIONS/WAIVER PICKS/RULE 5 DRAFT PICKS:
1. Robinson Tejada (Royals)--Waivers from Texas-- Great Arm & Pitches, but pitched in Texas
2. Rule 5 Draft Selections-- JoHann Santana (Mets from Astros), Dan Uggla (Marlins), Josh Hamilton (Rangers), Joakim Soria (Royals)
WORST TRADES, AT THE TRADE DEADLINE, IN THE PAST:
1. Jeff Bagwell (to the Astros) for Larry Anderson (Boston)
2. Mark McGwire (to Cardinals) for 3 players: T.J. Mathews, Eric Ludwick, Blake Stein (A's)
3. John Smoltz (to Braves) for Doyle Alexander (to Tigers)
4. Derek Lowe & Jason Varitek (to Red Sox) for Heathcliff Slocumb (to Mariners)
When looking at the overall players above, the teams that won and lost, one thing is 100% for sure, and that is nothing is 100% for sure. When a pitcher, like Kevin Millwood goes to the Phillies (pre-new ball park) it managed out to be a great/good trade, for the Phillies. However, when Millwood was off to Texas, things changed dramatically. It was not because Millwood's talent, arm, or skills were shot, but the fact was, he was playing in the Arlington ball park. In the summer months, in Texas, the air is thin and hot, and balls fly out of the park like they were shot out of a cannon. This alone, could add a full point onto any ERA, so Millwood goes from a 3.46 ERA, to a 4.46 ERA, just by pitching half of his games in Texas.
Rule 5 draft picks, are the players who are not protected by the club, on their 40 man roster. Teams take chances, leaving player who have talent, good tools, and great attitudes unprotected, because another team may not move another out, for a "flier, chance player." Obviously, there are diamonds in the rough, found in players like Johan Santana, Dan Uggla, Hamilton, and others who become all-star players. However, most of the players picked up, in rule 5 drafts, are players like Robinson Tejada (Royals). Tejada is a guy who has a great arm, three solid pitches, but will have to struggle for a year in the big leagues (the other problem with taking "rule 5" players, a team must keep them for the whole season, on the major league roster, or sell the player back at half price to the other ball club). Tejada may struggle this year, along with many other "Rule 5" picks, but after a season, or two in the minors (after taking their lumps for a year), they may come back to flourish. A good "Rule 5" player, could be a saviour to small market teams and for late season fantasy managers, who may need a specific category.
Finally, there are the obvious trades, which may not seem obvious at the time. Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson, was one of the biggest mistakes the Red Sox have ever made, as Bagwell played fifteen seasons with the Astros, put up huge numbers and will be a first ballot hall of famer. However, for every Bagwell trade that is a horrible mistake, there are five other trades, which help out the teams for the end of the season, playoffs, and maybe even getting a team a World Series Ring.
The bottom line, there are always "do's and don'ts" for real teams, trades, waiver, rule 5, and fantasy baseball managers. They are not always on the front burner though. A player with heavy tools and a great attitude (Josh Hamilton), is not always a sure thing. Hamilton was picked number one, overall, by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, in 1999. He signed a record contract, out of high school, was a five tool player and was a sure pick to be the next big superstar. Drugs, poor decisions, and a string of injuries took Hamilton out of the game altogether. Upon losing the contract, with the D-Rays, he was picked up by the Cubs (who left him unprotected, in the Rule 5 Draft) and the Reds picked him up. He was drug free and on the road to becoming a great person, but was not panning out as a player. The Reds made the trade, Josh Hamilton to the Rangers for Edison Volquez (back to the Reds). Now Hamilton is leading the American League in home runs, and Volquez is 10-3, and in the race to win the Cy Young Award and possibly Rookie of the Year awards. It is a big gamble, being an owner, GM, and manager dealing in the Rule 5 players, rookies, deadline trades and all that comes with them. At least, playing the fantasy league sports, a person will not lose there job, only (possibly) winning, or losing their league. Right?
From DMAN, at TheThoughtSpigot.com
http://thethoughtspigot.com/
"Where the news, sports, politics, and public opinion collide in one site"
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