Wednesday, April 15, 2009

CoCo Crisp, Over "Sentimentality" & Rookies.....


Copyright. "The Thought Spigot" http://thethoughtspigot.com/ Where a lot of fantasy baseball players go wrong, is drafting/playing rookies and using the "sentimentality players" (name recognition) rather than going with players with 2-3 years experience, or a player just past his prime. Players like Chris Carpenter (who is a great talent, when healthy, but when comes at a price), Troy Glaus, Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton, Dmitri Young, Jose Guillen, are all sentimental picks, or picks which may have been solid just a year/two ago, but are now players which should be stayed away from, with every fiber of your being. Cameron Mayebin, David Murphy (Texas), Matt LaPorte (Indians) & David Price (D-Rays), are all going to be good to great players, but they are not going to get a chance to contribute (absent injury), until half the season is gone, to maybe even September.

Where the first players are to stay away from at all cost, even as spot starters, there are plenty of options where people will allow you to keep the solid players you have and go get some players to produce (in case of injury, a bad draft, or something else unforseen). Let's just say, you do not take Glavine, Hampton and Guillen, who would be a great substitute and everyday player? How about these three, are still in most leagues Jeremy Guthrie (SP-Orioles Opening Day Starter, threw 200+ innings and under 4.00 ERA), Gil Meche (who is often overlooked for Grienke, but another 200 inning guy, at the end of his prime), and/or Jason Marquis, Braden Looper (two other guys who play for winning teams, will thro 175+ innings and will get you stats). They are not Clemens/Smoltz, in their primes, but they do get enough stats (definitely more, over rookies).

The "Love of Rookies" is something long lived in Fantasy Sports, probably because guys want to "get the next great thing/be the first." However, how many rookies, true rookies, actually come in and make a huge impact, or enough of an impact to validate taking of a spot (for 1/2 a years worth of stats)? No very many, are there, let me keep you from checking. Rookie and players who have less than two full seasons, under their belt, are not worth saving spots for, as a rule, when you can go out and get some good waiver talent. (The only reason to commit to a rookie, this early, is if he is coming out of AAA/AA ball, raised up, rather than kept up, after spring training. Thinking "whole seasons stats" (rather than you loving "your man"/"you wanting to pick up A-Rod/K-Rod, before the A.S. Break), in fantasy sports, you have to get the most points out of each slot. "CoCo Crisp" is the example for the whole year, and why he is.

Crisp lost his slot in Boston, where he was completely uncomfortable (after a couple of shaky plays in the outfield) at Fenway, to the Kansas City Royals. First plus, is Coco does not feel the need to go out and win everyday, he can just go any play. He will be given the green light to steal, bunt and play his outfield, with the newly renovated Kauffman Stadium (a traditional medium size park, without any wall jags/jets out). Most of all, he is going to play every single day in center field, in a park that is rain out friendly (arti-turf), and is not to hot in the summer, but doesn't cost you/him games in the spring and fall.

So, instead of Camerin Maybin, Matt Laporta, and Matt Joyce giving you a 1/2 to 3/4 season, hitting .260'ish, 20-25 HR, 5-10 steals, and noting much else. Crisp will get a team, 500 AB's, .270-.290 Avg., 10 HR's, 55-70 RBI's and 25-30 Steals. It is pretty obvious why a Coco Crisp, David Murphy (once it heats up in Texas, and the ball starts to carry), Ryan Church (if he continues on), Scutaro, Jay Bruce (when everyone drops him). Long term thinking, especially in MLB and NBA, is the only way to look and win, being they have the most games and are more intricate, as a rule.

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Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Evan Longoria, The Next Mike Schmidt?


Copyright. "The Thought Spigot"

Evan Longoria is the third baseman for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he is also one of the poster boys for major league baseball. He is a five tool player (hits for average & power, runs, fields, and has a sizzling arm across the diamond), and he is drawing major comparisons to a Hall of Fame third baseman, Mike Schmidt. Longoria is a Tampa Bay favorite, is active in charity work, plus he is a man among men, when he steps between those chalk lines.

Today, where the headlines bleed stories on HGH, steroids, "greenies" (speed pills, allowing players to be "fresh" everyday), players putting themselves over team ("Manny being Manny" & A-Rod articles looking like a soft porn shoot), Longoria is far away from the scrutiny and works to be the best player he can be (naturally, no less). One example, of Evan's dedication and differential from other ball players, is in his pre-game regiment. The T. B. third base coach and Evan have a routine, after all of the other drills are done. He hits Longoria 10 ground balls, as hard as he can. If Longoria fields all 10 of the balls without any mistakes, then the coach makes him a "smoothie." However, if Longoria bobbles, drops, or flat out misses any ball, then Longoria is the "smoothie maker." Quite a difference, from "Manny being Manny," riding a three wheel bike (when he has a pulled hamstring, at Dodgers spring training) for the cameras.

The whole Rays staff and coaches (some older players and announcers) are drawing a flattering comparison, "Evan Longoria looks like a young Mike Schmidt, but better." Mike Schmidt, the Hall of Fame third baseman (for the Philadelphia Phillies), was nothing short of an offensive monster and a perennial "Gold Glove" winner, so this is high praise for a player who has just one season under his belt. However, the statistics do not lie:

Mike Schmidt's 1st Full Year (1973):
G-132, AB-367, Hits-72, Runs-43, 2B-11, HR-15, RBI-52, SB-8, AVG-.182, SLG%-.373

Evan Longoria's 1st Full Year (2008)
G-122, AB-448, Hits-122, Runs-67, Doubles-31, HR-27, RBI-85, Avg-.272, SLG%-.531

Looking at these eye popping numbers, in a rookie season (compared to Schmidt and other Hall of Fame players thru the years), the only thing possibly to side rail Longoria, is injury, or Longoria himself. Over the course of a 20 year career, there is going to be bumps, bruises, or some other act of God. However, Evan Longoria is the real deal.

It is very early to call him a Hall of Famer, but Longoria is on the fast track (with David Wright). On the Ray's roster, with the table setters of Carl Crawford, B. J. Upton, and the stability of power hitters around him (Carlos Pena, Matt Joyce, & Pat Burrell), he is in the best of situations. Only time will tell, on the injury front, but this smooth handed, laser armed, power hitting phenom has nothing except sunny days and big numbers ahead of him. In twenty years, he could be the best "true third baseman" (A-Rod came up and split his career at shortstop) to play the game. He is that good!

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